Iraq violence: monitoring the surge

The number of violent deaths in Iraq fell again this week, as the US military commander in the country told Congress that the troop "surge" was working.

An extra 30,000 US personnel have been deployed in Iraq, mainly in and around the capital Baghdad, since the launch of the security drive, in February.

The BBC World Service has been monitoring its effects, week by week, looking at casualty figures, the pressure on hospitals and quality of life for ordinary civilians.

The graphics and analysis are based on figures from the US and Iraqi authorities, Baghdad's hospitals and three families from different neighbourhoods in the capital.

SECURITY

The number of people killed in Iraq fell to 269 during the monitoring period of 5 to 12 September. This was down from 283 a week ago and 400 the week before that. It is the lowest figure reported since the surge began.

The numbers coincided with a report by the US commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, who told Congress that violence had declined significantly since the operation started.

See a map of US security posts in Baghdad In maps

He said that although progress was "uneven", the objectives were "largely being met". It was possible that US troop numbers could be cut by 30,000 by mid-2008.

Of those killed in the past week, 163 were civilians. It was the lowest number during the 13 weeks of the survey and far below the highest toll of 493. A further 109 civilians were wounded.

Military casualties included the deaths of 19 US troops, compared with 13 in the previous week. A further 23 were wounded.

The dead also included eight members of the Iraqi military, 15 Iraqi policemen and 60 insurgents.

See US troop positions before and after the surge

ECONOMICS

Fuel shortages remain a major problem for Iraqis, with long power cuts and fuel queues a common feature of civilian life, particularly in Baghdad.

The families helping paint a picture of these hardships in this survey are from different areas of the city - which can mean different pressures according to the religious make-up of the area and the subsequent security risks.

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Family 1 is located in Palestine Street, a Shia neighbourhood in the east of the capital.

Family 2 is located in Zayouna, a mixed neighbourhood in south-east Baghdad.

Family 3 lives in Saba Abkar, a northern Sunni neighbourhood.

Electricity supplies became increasingly erratic over the week, with family three left without any power at all. They have had the least reliable supply throughout the monitoring period.

Family one's supply halved to two hours a day, while family two's supply remained steady at two hours in every 24.

It followed the previous week's announcement from the Ministry of Electricity that it was setting up 150 generators around Baghdad to supplement the national grid.

The continued power cuts and the approach of Ramadan led to queues of at least eight hours for gas, as people opted to buy fuel for their private generators.

Fuel prices were relatively stable, although large discrepancies between official and black market prices remained.

A litre of petrol, for example, cost 450 Iraqi dinars (18p) at the pump, but 1,000 (40p) on the black market. A gas cylinder at a petrol station was 7,500 Iraqi dinars (£2.99), compared with 27,000 (£10.80) on the black market.

BAGHDAD HOSPITALS

A rise in the number of doctors at Al-Kindi hospital was reported, after it increased its security force to 100 guards in the previous week.

It had also set up a legal office following repeated attacks on medical staff by patients' relatives, or Iraqi forces.

The hospital received 69 patients with violence-related injuries. Of these 54 were caused by shootings and explosions.

A further 15 were thought to be the result of conflict between the Mehdi Army and Badr Brigade in different Shia districts of Baghdad.

The hospital also dealt with 18 violence-related deaths.

At al-Yarmouk hospital, 20 patients injured during violence were treated. A further three people died as a result of violence and 11 unidentified bodies were received.

Data compiled by BBC producer Mona Mahmoud. This is the final instalment of the weekly survey appearing on the BBC News website.

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Show US troop positions after the surge.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6993516.stm

The American forces cannot even protect their great ally

By Kim Sengupta in Baghdad

Published: 15 September 2007

The customers at the Shah Bandar café were sombre and anxious as they watched the news on television and talked about the repercussions of the killing of Abdul Sattar Abu Risha.

The common consensus was that violence will escalate even further and there was little chance of peace in the foreseeable future.

"The security situation had become a bit better because of these extra American troops, but now they cannot even protect Sheikh Abu Risha who was supposed to be their great ally," said Rashid Hussein Mohmmed, 33, and a Sunni.

As The Selling of Our Country, a satirical programme about a corrupt government presiding over a disintegrating society, came on screen, the mood lightened. The appearance of the actors playing Premier Nouri al-Maliki, President Jalal Talabani and a succession of incompetent and venal ministers drew roars of laughter.

The production staff of the programme, shown on a satellite station based in London, all live abroad. It is claimed that the Iraqi government want them extradited for sedition. Mr al-Maliki, the customers in the café would have you believe, wanted them shot.

In Baghdad, President Bush's announcement this week of the withdrawal of just over 5,000 troops brought mixed reactions. Most in the streets wanted all the troops to go, but there were others, mainly Sunnis, yesterday's enemy for the Americans, who felt that would leave them in the clutches of an Iranian-influenced Shia government. There was, however, near unanimity in the view that no progress could be made until Mr Maliki, seen as a bankrupt prime minister, is replaced, and also expressions of disgust that the US ambassador Ryan Crocker had recommended that Washington should continue to back him.

For Baghdad residents, the price they have paid for the fall in violence has been the brutal segregation of the city between Shia and Sunnis, physically represented by a wall, springing up in the al-Ghazaliyah neighbourhood, which this week brought protesters out on to the street.

Meanwhile Baghdad's infrastructure has continued to crumble. Four years after "liberation" and the arrival of a market economy, the electricity supply in the city has dwindled to around an hour a day with most households depending on generators powered by benzine. The price of the fuel has risen in three years from 50 dinars to 450 dinars, the spectacular inflation reflected in the price of many other commodities. Access to basic facilities has regressed – a recent Oxfam report said that just 30 per cent of the people have access to clean water, compared to 50 per cent two months ago.

In the Karada district, Saad Hamdi Faisal, a 24-year-old restaurant worker, another Sunni, wished the report by General David Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker had been more honest and of more use to the Iraqi people. "We thought it will do something to change the government and lead to a new election which will help get rid of sectarianism. But everything will stay the same because Maliki, who is himself sectarian, stays in power." Mr Maliki's support appears to have ebbed even among the Shia constituency.

Mohammed Ali Hussein, 19, who manages a computer shop sees no signs of progress. "What have we got? Shortages in everything except bombs. No, Maliki must go and the occupation must end as well. Let us hope what Bush has said is a start."

And disenchantment with the government spans the class divide.

At the Hunting Club, an establishment for Baghdad's elite which has seen the membership dwindle by 80 per cent in the last two years because of the violence, general secretary Maksood al-Sanjary was gloomy. "They say the situation is improving, but we have lost members and I cannot go outside my home after 6.45pm.

"I am a businessman so members of my family are targets for kidnapping. We have had club members kidnapped and killed."

But there is a silver lining for some, like Fadal Jassem Shwied, for whom the violence and uncertainty at least means employment. Cradling his AK-47 rifle, the 32-year-old security guard said "I cannot complain, everyone needs someone like me now. I am sure the [Petraeus] report was prepared by the Americans to suit themselves but at the end If they leave there will be civil war, street by street, and the country will be finished."

Additional reporting by Omar al-Ogaidy.

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article2964470.ece