Monday, October 18, 2010

Q & A - Monetary Progress in Iraq ... Currency ...

Not sure who wrote this ... but it's someone's analysis about this investment. IMO, it's a very worthwhile read.
...................................future city in Iraq

Iraq's Currency ~

_*Will the Iraq's Currency be revalued?
_*When will Iraq's Currency be revalued?
_*How will the Iraqi Currency be revalued?

1) Iraq is an extremely wealthy country when you look at their natural resources and potential GDP. The expert consensus is that Iraq has at least the second largest oil reserves and natural gas reserves in the world. There is strong speculation that Iraq actually has the largest oil and natural gas reserves in the world. Additionally, many people don’t realize that oil from Iraq is some of the world’s cheapest oil to drill and refine—the oil is very “rich” and close to the surface with few impurities or hindrances to drilling. (Oct. 4, 2010 Iraq Announces Jump in Oil Reserves ...)

2) Iraq’s cost of production per barrel of oil is minimal compared to other world oil producers. This all means that Iraq’s profit margins on their oil production are some of the highest in the world. Additionally, Iraq has a vast agricultural system and abundant fresh water supplies from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers---Iraq is known as the “Bread Basket of the Middle East.” Moreover, Iraq has a large and traditionally hardworking productive population. The bottom line is that Iraq has staggering wealth in natural resources and tremendous GNP and GDP.

The country of Iraq will not be allowed to decay into a state of instability. Iraq is not Somalia, Vietnam or Rwanda -- It is a strategic Middle Eastern country with tremendous potential wealth. It is in the best interest of every Western country and most Middle Eastern countries for Iraq to succeed as an independent stable economy and country. No Western or Middle Eastern country is going to stand by while Iraqi’s vast oil reserves and wealth fall under the control of a neighboring rouge country or insurgency---it just won’t happen.

3) The political and economic powers of the world are doing everything possible to stabilize Iraq and bring their economy in line with the rest of the world as soon as possible---this is in the best interest of all nations.

World leaders understand that wealth and prosperity in a country lead to stability and increased productivity---people don’t revolt when their needs are being met and their quality of life is improving. One of the fastest ways to stabilize a country is to increase its wealth and the quality of life for the population as soon as possible. The cost of increasing an entire population’s wealth is much less than the cost of war and widespread instability in the oil-rich nations of the Middle East.

4) The history of the Iraqi Dinar demonstrates strong potential for growth. At one time, the Iraqi Dinar was worth over 3000 times ($3.20/Iraqi Dinar to <.001/Iraqi Dinar) what it is currently worth, while at the same time oil (Iraq’s largest natural resource) was selling for approximately $15 per barrel -- less than 1/5th of today’s price.

5) Excluding rogue nations (Iran, Syria, and other nations as defined by the US), the lowest exchange rates in the Middle East for countries like Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., Israel, etc are no lower than $.26 per Dinar, Sheqel, Dirham, Rial, Riyal, etc. If the value of the Iraqi Dinar increased in value to just the lowest valued currency of the mainstream Middle Eastern countries, it would result in a 260 times increase in value. More simply stated, 1 million Iraqi Dinar purchased for approximately $1000 US dollars today would be worth $260,000 US dollars if the Iraqi Dinar were valued at $.26 US Dollars—the lowest current valuation for a mainstream Middle Eastern country. If the Iraqi Dinar were to reach a value equivalent to its historical rate of $3.20 US dollars per Iraqi Dinar, the value of an approximate $1000 US dollar Iraqi Dinar investment for 1 million Iraqi Dinar would be worth $3,200,000 US Dollars. As a note, the current exchange rate for the Kuwaiti Dinar is $3.44 US dollars for 1 Kuwait Dinar---it would take $3,440,000.00 US Dollars to purchase 1 million Kuwaiti Dinar.

6) Since its inception in late 2003, the Iraqi Dinar has steadily increased in value—indicating a recovering economy and increase in conversion of natural wealth resources. The bottom line is that the Iraqi Dinar is currently at an extremely low valuation compared to the US Dollar. The currency has steadily increased in value since inception in late 2003.

Iraq is a country with phenomenal wealth potential; and additionally, has the backing and support of the major political and economic powers of the world. There currently seems to be minimal risk that the Iraqi Dinar will decrease in value. The tremendous potential upside return compared to the minimal downside risk seems to make the Iraqi Dinar a compelling investment opportunity worth investigating.

One compelling speculation that may relate to the value increase of the Iraqi Dinar is the actual amount of Iraqi Dinar being held by the United States Treasury Department. A significant increase in the value of the Iraqi Dinar would more than pay for cost of recent US war efforts in the Middle East and greatly alleviate the tremendous debt recently initiated by the US Government. The US Government’s current runaway spending seems to suggest that the US Treasury Department is expecting a massive windfall in the near future that will cover debt. Although this theory seems logical and despite the fact that this theory is parroted by many, this speculation can not be confirmed.

In determining when the Iraqi Dinar will increase in value, all indicators point toward something happening in the near future (next 12 months) if not the very near future (next 3 months). The appreciation of the Iraqi Dinar has been unprecedentedly flat over the past 8 months despite low Iraqi inflation and a weakening US economy and US dollar. The Iraqi economy has been on a continual surge of economic growth for the past couple of years as Iraq has continued to stabilize and rebuild.

The news coming out of Iraq from numerous returning military members with various reliable sources indicates a rapid move and increase in valuation occurring prior to, or in conjunction with US troop reductions. Indicators also point to an increase in the Iraqi Dinar exchange rate occurring prior to, or shortly after Iraqi elections.

It appears that administratively, the IMF, WTO, and other world financial entities are working in close conjunction with the Iraqi Government to bring Iraq’s financial system online with the rest of the world. The expectation is that the Iraqi Dinar will soon be freely traded through banks worldwide---further accelerating their recovery and economy, and adding to overall stability.

To answer the question of “How” and “How high?” the Iraqi Dinar will revaluate, some speculation is in order. Based on historical precedents, an initial sudden significantly (overnight/over weekend) high revaluation seems very possible. This initial move could be anywhere along the entire spectrum of rumored possibilities from $.01 to $1.49.

After this initial revaluation, it seems likely there will be numerous significant incremental increases in valuation over a period of time. This continual increase in value after an initial base valuation will prevent an overwhelming surge on the world financial system. By incrementally increasing the value of the dinar, it will limit the number and amount of Iraqi Dinar exchanges as many investors and currency traders will choose to hold their Iraqi Dinar or purchase more as they anticipate further valuation increases.

In other words, a steady increase in the value of the Iraqi Dinar will create a free flowing market as some investors cash-out, others hold on, and others purchase Iraqi Dinar for the first time.

Author unknown ... Don't ask for link

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